天空新闻台的詹姆斯·西拉尔斯撰文指出，类似于英国此前达成的协议，各方对进一步达成协议的乐观情绪似乎正在减弱，但有充分理由怀疑，自8月1日起实施的任何关税上调措施都将只是昙花一现。
唐纳德·特朗普显然对“TACO”（意为“特朗普总是临阵退缩”）这一缩写耿耿于怀——该术语已成为过去几个月金融市场交易的标志性用语。
这表明，尽管总统在此前时断时续的贸易战中屡屡发出虚张声势的威胁，但鲜少付诸实际行动。
五月底，当记者就TACO问题提问时——当时他所谓的"解放日"升级行动仍处于暂停状态——他称这是一个"令人不快的"问题，并表示希望进行谈判。
特朗普先生希望达成协议，但实质上是通过威逼手段迫使美国的贸易伙伴接受更有利的条款。
这一策略手册界定了他在白宫期间的执政风格。目前，包括日本和韩国在内的20多个国家和地区，其出口至美国的产品自8月1日起将面临高达40%的关税上调。
金融市场并未真正采信这一观点。例如，美国和欧洲股市仍徘徊在历史高点附近甚至创下新高，而TACO已深深嵌入这些估值之中。
但市场是否将面临冲击？尤其是当涉及美国最大单一贸易伙伴欧盟的对抗时。特朗普此前曾声称，欧盟的成立就是为了"坑害"美国。
可以公平地说，本月早些时候，欧盟内部对达成一项协议持非常乐观的态度，该协议类似于美英之间达成的协议，有望避免从8月1日起实施30%的基准关税这一最坏情况。
但上周末布鲁塞尔方面的氛围已有所转变，如今欧盟外交官甚至透露，除对美国商品加征关税外，他们正在考虑采取更广泛的报复措施。
这场斗争的严峻性不容低估。
欧盟数据显示，该集团与美国之间的商品和服务贸易占全球贸易总额的近三分之一，仅2024年的贸易额就达到1.68万亿欧元（约合1.45万亿英镑）。
据路透社援引外交官透露的言论报道，欧盟贸易专员马罗什·谢夫乔维奇警告称，30%的关税将“实际阻断”欧盟与大西洋彼岸的贸易往来。
据悉，即便时间耗尽，理论上仍有可能在8月1日后不久达成停火协议。
很大程度上将取决于欧盟的回应。
它是否会效仿英国的做法，在谈判结束前暂不采取报复行动？
布鲁塞尔方面正面临越来越大的压力，要求其揭穿特朗普的虚张声势。
欧盟已准备好从8月6日起对价值210亿美元的美国商品加征关税。另一套关税方案尚未最终确定。
法国要求美国服务业也应受到打击，就连德国现在也表示应考虑采取此类升级措施。
这项所谓的"反胁迫"工具，还可能允许欧盟限制美国公司进入其金融服务市场。
因此，8月1日之后的事态发展可能会更加激烈。
但我们完全有理由相信，这种以牙还牙的升级不太可能发生，至少不会持续太久。
唐纳德·特朗普在4月份撤回其"解放日"关税措施，并给予90天谈判期，其根本原因很可能是广泛征税消息引发金融市场的剧烈反应。
当前一位总统正要求降息（此时由于关税影响通胀正在上升），以期提振疲软的经济增长。
特朗普表示，他的贸易战旨在提振美国制造业就业，但归根结底，没有任何选民群体会长久容忍自身投资价值受到威胁。
没有一家美国大型企业会坐视自身销售额下滑而无动于衷。
塔可（TACO）？这是个稳妥的选择。
Sky's James Sillars writes that optimism for further deals, similar to that for the UK, appears to be dimming but there is every reason to suspect that any tariff expansions from 1 August will be short-lived.
Donald Trump is clearly seething over the term 'TACO' (Trump always chickens out) - a phrase that has characterised financial market trading over the past few months.
It suggests that for all the president's bluster and threats during his on-off trade war to date, he rarely follows through.
When asked by a reporter about TACO in late May, as his "liberation day" escalation remained on pause, he declared it a " nasty " question and said he wanted negotiations.
Mr Trump wants a deal but to effectively bully America's trading partners into agreeing better terms.
It's a playbook that has defined his time in the White House and, as things stand, more than 20 nations and territories , including Japan and South Korea, face heightened tariffs of up to 40% on their exports to the US from 1 August.
Financial markets don't really believe it. Stock markets, for example, are still hovering near or at record levels in both the US and in Europe. TACO is ingrained in those values.
But are markets are in for a shock, especially when it comes to the fight with America's single largest trading partner, the European Union? It was created, Mr Trump has previously claimed, to "screw" the United States.
It's fair to say there was great optimism in the EU earlier this month that a deal, similar to that agreed between the US and UK, was looming to avert the worst of a threatened 30% baseline tariff from 1 August.
But the mood music in Brussels changed at the back end of last week and now EU diplomats are even briefing that a broader range of retaliation measures is being considered beyond additional tariffs on US goods.
The seriousness of this fight should not be underestimated.
EU figures show trade in goods and services between the bloc and the US account for almost a third of all global trade, at a value in 2024 alone of 1.68trn (051.45trn).
EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic has warned that a 30% tariff would "practically prohibit" the bloc's transatlantic trade, according to remarks via diplomats reported by the Reuters news agency.
We're told that, even if time runs out, a truce could theoretically be agreed soon after 1 August.
Much will depend on the EU's response.
Does it go down the route taken by the UK and not retaliate, pending the conclusion of talks?
There is growing pressure on Brussels to call Mr Trump's bluff.
The EU has a package of tariffs on 21bn of US goods ready to go from 6 August. An additional package is yet to be finalised.
France is demanding US services are hit too, with even Germany now saying such an escalation should be considered.
The so-called "anti-coercion" instrument, as it's known, would also potentially allow the bloc to limit US companies' access to financial service markets in the EU.
So what happens after 1 August could be even more explosive.
But there is every reason to believe that a tit-for-tat escalation is unlikely, at least for long.
The very reason Donald Trump rowed back on his "liberation day" tariffs in April, allowing 90 days for talks, was likely the dire financial market reaction that followed news of the widespread duties.
You have a president demanding interest rate cuts (at a time when inflation is on the rise due to the impact of tariffs) in a bid to boost flagging economic growth.
Mr Trump says his trade war is all about boosting US manufacturing jobs but, at the end of the day, no powerbase of voters is going to accept a threat to the value of their investments for long.
No big US company will stand by and see its sales suffer.
TACO? It's a solid bet.
